News:

Welcome to the Excogitatoris.Site Forum
Please Register and join the discussion.
You need to log in to view attachments

Please keep it civilised.
Excogitatoris.Site

Main Menu

Some Risk Analysis

Started by Excogitatoris, 18 May 21, 09:04:56

Previous topic - Next topic

Excogitatoris

The risk of blood clothing with the Astrazeneca vaccine is estimated to 20-40 per million. Chance; 20 / 1M = 0.00002
The risk to die from Covid19 = risk of infection x Case Fatality Rate (CFR)
Risk of infection = community infections / total population
The CFR for age group 50-59 = 0.5%
=> The amount of community infections in Australia to come to a risk equivalent of 0.00002 = 0.00002/0.005 x 25M = 100.000 people in Australian community.

Currently we have no community infections at all in Australia.
The total cases since the start of the outbreak last year is below 30.000!
To be vaccinated under current conditions is riskier than the risk posed by infection by Covid19.

It makes sense to wait until we have a large outbreak looming and to see what the risks associated with which vaccine are, as they are still emerging.  And this is without considering any unknown long term risks!